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Report 2009: 5 R

Higher education and the employment market: planning for the academic year 2009/10

There is a risk for a shortage of doctors, nurses and other health professionals if the number of study places is not increased. There is also a need to increase places on first-cycle (undergraduate) programmes in engineering as young engineers are required to replace engineers nearing retirement. With regard to engineers, the problem is not a lack of study places but a lack of interest from students. There is already a shortage of teachers, particularly early childhood and vocational teachers, and this shortage will remain unless more students take up places on teacher education programmes.
 
These are some of the results of the calculations about the future balance in the employment market that Statistics Sweden has carried out in collaboration with Högskoleverket (Swedish National Agency for Higher Education).
 
The report focuses on the assessment of the employment market when students commencing their studies in the coming academic year complete their studies.
 

Future need should be managed


Higher education institutions adapt their range of courses and study programmes to the interests of the students and the needs of the employment market. However, it is future need that is the crucial factor. There is a five-year time gap between when students begins their studies and when they complete them, and much can happen in those five years.

However, a number of known factors can influence the decision about an increase or decrease in the number of places for new entrants to higher education. One of these is the number of people reaching retirement age. This varies between the different employment categories. Specific structural changes also influence the future demand for employees in different vocations and professions. These may include population trends, technological developments and other changes within industry and business.
 
The most important factor, however, is to acknowledge that it is not the current but the future employment market that should determine the higher education courses and study programmes offered. Experience shows that students often choose courses and study programmes that are currently attractive.
 

Risk for shortage of teachers, engineers and health professionals


According to calculations, one third of employment categories should demonstrate a balance or relatively good balance between the supply and demand of graduates, when students commencing their studies in the coming year complete their education. In other cases, there is a considerable risk that there will be too few or too many graduates per employment category.
 
The employment categories demonstrating a future shortage of graduates are: extended school instructors, vocational teachers, bio-medical analysts, engineers (with Bachelors degrees), dispensers, special needs teachers and dentists. There is a need for more places on the study programmes leading to these professions in order to avoid a future shortage of professionals.

In terms of employment, there is likely to be a surplus of graduates from artistic fields, pharmacy and business.

In a wider perspective, there is a need to increase the number of study places on care programmes, and to increase places on technology programmes to a limited degree, but decrease places on programmes in the social sciences.

There is a need for more places on teacher education programmes. Of most significance is the specialism and age group chosen by students. In order to influence the choices students make, certain areas where there is a shortage of teachers should be made more attractive, for example early childhood teaching.

Last updated: 2010-06-21
Contact: Torbjörn Lindqvist, Email: firstname.lastname@hsv.se
Swedish National Agency for Higher Education  Visting address: Luntmakargatan 13  Box 7851, 103 99 Stockholm
Phone: 08-563 085 00  Fax: 08-563 085 50  Email: hsv@hsv.se