2007:42 R

Lower inflows into higher education — an analysis and discussion about possible causes

The survey shows that inflows into higher education have diminished in the period after 2003/2004. This is the case regardless of whether we look at the number of applicants, the number of students, or the transfer rate from upper secondary school to higher education. The drop is biggest among older people, but in recent years there has also been a drop in the number of people who are 25 or younger. The number of applicants has dropped for most programmes and at most higher education institutions, but particularly for BSc engineering programmes, computing programmes and teacher training programmes, as well as at some smaller and relatively recently established university colleges. This means that the greatest drop in the number of applicants has been for a number of programmes and institutions which already had problems with low applicant levels. There are also differences in different social groups. Looking at social background and foreign background, the broadened recruitment to higher education has somewhat diminished.

It should be noted that the lower inflows into higher education come after a long period of expansion of undergraduate education, and that from an international perspective, Sweden still has a high share of inhabitants with a higher education. The shrinking numbers of applicants and students have nonetheless caused problems. First, a lower interest in certain education programmes has meant that there is now a shortage of trained labour in certain professional areas. Second, the reduction in numbers has meant that the development towards socially broadened recruitment has come to a halt. Third, some institutions now have financial problems as a result of the lower numbers of applicants and students. These problems could be compounded if the downward trend continues, particularly if there are increasingly fewer young people who choose to go on to higher education.

The analysis of possible explanations focuses on why increasingly fewer young people begin higher education. The results of the analysis indicate that the lower inflows into higher education among young people aged 18-21 can be partly explained by increased difficulties in making study and career choices, and by the fact that studying is perceived as less profitable.
 
* Regarding the difficulties in choosing between different study and career options, surveys suggest that young people find it harder to choose what they want to do in the future, that they are more worried about choosing the wrong education, and that they feel that the study and career counselling offered at school does not provide good enough support.

* Regarding the view that it has become less profitable to study, our analysis indicates that increasingly fewer young people see higher education as a way of improving their possibilities in the labour market.

The data at our disposal does not, however, indicate that the lower inflows into higher education among young people are due to a lower interest in higher education, that Swedish higher education cannot handle the competition from other education providers, that it has become easier to get a job immediately after finishing upper secondary school, or that the preparedness for higher education has deteriorated.

The results of this report must be regarded as preliminary, however. The study needs to be complemented with further empirical studies in order for us to get a clearer picture of how and why inflows into higher education have diminished for different programmes and in different social groups. We propose that a next step could be both in-depth interviews with young people and a more comprehensive survey. Longer interviews with young people would provide deeper knowledge about their thinking about education choices and their own future. A bigger survey would, for its part, make it possible to investigate various causes and effects at the individual level, and establish whether there are differences between different programmes and background factors. By asking the same questions as in earlier surveys and making comparisons between different age groups, it would also be possible to examine whether changes have occurred over time.